Beal Consultants

Providing exert advice to the water industry

(+44) 07970 675908

Forecasting an Uncertain Future

Forecasting demand or budgets is critical for all businesses, whether in the private or public sector. We have developed an approach that can be applied across a range of business sectors to allow risk and uncertainty to be incorporated into options appraisal and budget forecasting. A key output is CORE, a spreadsheet based forecasting tool that is delivered to the client to allow further scenarios or options to be investigated



The CORE forecasting tool is developed through a staged approach, which enables quick implementation in new business sectors and delivers a tailored approach to meet clients needs:

  • Investigate historic data: determine trends, distributions and variability of historic data. This can be within Excel, or for larger datasets using SPSS
  • Propose outline model design, key drivers and the use of optimisation.
  • Initial forecasts and model outputs for review.
  • Delivery of forecasting tool and documentation. The model is currently developed within Excel witht the @Risk add-in, but other options could be developed if required
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Application of Forecasting Tool (CORE)

The approach has been applied across a range of different business areas, the following two examples illustrate the wide range of applications that can benefit from the proposed approach.


Options Appraisal

Water Industry Example

The water company wished to compare a range of alternative options to manage its supply-demand balance. This included metering, mains renewal, water efficiency and a range of resource options.

Traditionally the least cost option would be identified through a scenario approach, but this does not take account of the different risks and uncertainties inherent in each option. Incorporation of risk into the process allowed the optimal scenario to be selected using the range of costs, and not just the most likely cost.

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Budget Forecasts

Local Government Example

The council wished to develop a budget forecast for their Children Looked After taking into account historic variability in the ages of children and their likely length of stay. The forecasting tool also considered the differences between residential and fostering care provision.

A 3-year forecast budget and CLA was prepared that predicts the likely range of future budget requirements.

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